Future Issues Warfare and Conflict Issues

Future Issues Warfare and Conflict Issues

Future Issues

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Top: Society: Issues: Warfare and Conflict: Future Issues

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- Transcript of a talk given at American University, April 2002, with edits.
- Addresses key changes since the Cold War ended, lessons, current problems and issues. Commissioned by the Swiss Ministry of Defense, 1998.
- The US 2002 National Security Strategy (NSS) identified the proliferation, privatization, and acquisition of weapons of mass destruction by terrorist groups and rogue states as the critical nontraditional threat of the 21st century. Published in September
- A study about the required post-Cold War military transformation which takes into account the changing nature of war and the experiences of past conflicts. By Anthony C. Zinni, Strategic Forum, US National Defense University, July 2001.
- A report about the future consequences of water scarcity worldwide. It states the urgency of confronting the potential crisis and conflicts on all fronts, from research to policy and action. By Panel on Biotechnology of the World Commission on Water for t
- An article that intends to anticipate what the future conflicts will be like. Introduces the concept of fourth generation war. By William S. Lind, Keith Nightengale, John F. Schmitt, Joseph W. Sutton and Gary I. Wilson, published in Marine Corps Gazette,
- The article describes the state of chaos of the post-Cold War world, with a steady increase of entropy and anomie, and a crisis of former models of leadership. Also, analyzes the nature of future conflicts and the role of United States and Europe as key p
- Describes how events in the Twenty-first Century will test the limits to American strength but not its fundamentals and postulates that these tests will underscore the inability of technology to overcome all challenges, by Jeremy Black, February 2002.
- Shows how thinking deeply about the future of war requires careful reflection on its past, by Robert F. Baumann, 1997.
- The article shows how the end of the Cold War created a new-world order and presented new challenges for future leaders, such as countering the ever growing terrorist threat. Accompanying this threat is a proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, now
- An anticipatory article by David Isenberg, October 2000.
- Slide show that summarizes the key aspects of asymmetric conflicts, by Greg Wilcox and G.I. Wilson for Boyd Comference, 2002.
- A paper showing a response to the question of "How can the United States best develop security cooperation within the Americas?" by Col. Joseph R. Nunez. Strategic Studies Institute, US Army War College, August 2002.
- The article shows how globalization is enhancing the role of political guidance and changing the nature of war. Author: Antulio Echevarria II. Strategic Studies Institute (SSI) of the US Army War College, 2003.
- Shows how the process of developing and building new weapons, as does the process of recruiting and training new military officers takes decades, so that, leaders need to be futurists by making statements, implicitly or explicitly, about what they think w
- Sam Tangredi presents a set of assumptions and possible scenarios about the future security environment for the next 25 years. National Defense University, USA. McNair Paper No. 63, November 2000.
- A paper about the nature of fourth generation warfare and the form it may take in Middle East. By Steve Daskal, November 2003.
- Shows the change of US strategic vision of national and global security after September 11 attacks, by Steven J. Tomisek. Strategic Forum No.189, February 2002.
- Collection of essays including 'The New Evils of the 21st Century' by Robert D. Kaplan; 'Weapons of Mass Destruction and Physical Heritage of the Cold War' by W.K.H. Panofsky and 'Group Loyalty and Ethnic Violence' by Donald L. Horowitz. [PDF]
- A paper where the author, Robert M. Steele, examines two paradigm shifts--one in relation to the threat and a second in relation to intelligence methods-- while offering a new model for threat analysis and a new model for intelligence operations in non-tr
- Study on future principles of war, military affairs, air power, plus information and biological war. From the U.S. Air Force.
- Article from Raymond Kurzweil on future methods of fighting, including pilotless planes and thinking machines. Published in 1993.
- Collection of articles about doctrine of future types and causes of warfare, future threats of security environment, short-term future challenges for possible local war, and long-term future warfare from the point of view of several Chinese authors. Publi
- The Pentagon's aim is to meld weapons systems and people into a whole, called network-centric warfare, that's greater than the sum of its parts. From Business Week Online, January 2003.
- The challenges of post-modern war from a multidimensional point of view, by Michael Evans, Naval War College Review, Summer 2003.
- An assessment of future security environment for 2025, by Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., National Defense University, McNair Paper 62, 2000.
- The role of U.S. special operations forces in future conflicts explained by a number of specialists. Author: Harold Kennedy, National Defense Magazine, Feb 2002.
- The zigzag evolution of chemical and biological weapons in the 20th century give causes for both optimism and pessimism in the course it will take in the 21st, by Greg Goebel, Jun 2003.
- The changes required in US military to cope with the set of challenges that the early 21st will pose, by Glenn C. Buchan, RAND, for the Conference on Analyzing Conflict: Insights from the Natural and Social Sciences, UCLA, April 2003.
- Technological advances often give rise to new types of weapons, but the achievement of lasting breakthroughs in fighting power requires organizational and doctrinal innovation. Opinion article by J. Arquilla and D. Ronfeldt, Aviation Week & Space Tech
- A compilation of articles by several authors about how future wars are expected to be. Barry R. Schneider and Jim A. Davis, Editors, USAF Counterproliferation Center, April 2004.
- Examines the performance of U.S. forces in three major post-Cold War military conflicts to identify commonalities and trends that may have implications for the conduct of warfare in the early 21st Century. By Christopher J. Bowie, Robert P. Haffa Jr. and
- States the difference between the conduct of war and the nature of war, and its practical consequences in the information age. Author: James M.Dubik, Landpower Essay, Institute of Landwarfare, July 2002.
- Analyzes the weakness and failure of nation-states as a potential source of future conflicts. Essay by Robert Rotberg, for NIC 2020 Project, Inaugural Workshop, November 2003.
- Books, documents, articles and web sites. References gathered in a selected bibliography compiled by Jane E. Gibish, U.S. Army War College Library, July 2003.
- A view of conflict and its strategic environment two decades ahead. Author: C.J. Dick. Published by The Conflict Studies Research Centre, Royal Military Academy Sandhurst, UK, 2002.
- Remarks by John Gannon from the National Intelligence Council to the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, about the globalization of the security environment and the implications for counterproliferation, May 2000.
- Information about a research project aimed at covering influences that would shape the world to the year 2020. Contains papers about the nature of future conflicts. Sponsored by the US National Intelligence Council.
- An approach to the better understanding of asymmetric threats. By Colin S. Gray, Parameters, US Army War College Quarterly - Spring 2002.
- Article by Jack Shanahan, Chet Richards and Franklin Spinney, 2002. Describes fourth-generation warfare that pits nations against non-national organizations or networks that include not only fundamentalist extremists, but also ethnic factions, mafias and
- How technologies emerging over the coming decades will undermine military stability while causing economic and political turmoil. The need to move beyond deterrence to an integrated international security system. Article by Mark Avrum Gubrud, Center for S
- Articles about information warfare, nanowar, and other future conflict scenarios from Plausible Futures Newsletter.
- Postulates that today's global environment is defined by the 4th Generation War reality, with nation-states confronting criminal enterprises, fanatical opportunists, and terrorists whose gang-like networks transcend national boundaries. All these actors o

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